[aislephive]

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This isn't terrible, villain will show up with air, lower diamonds, and a ton of hands we're flipping against. Probably slightly +EV, and at worst slightly -EV.

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I challenge you to find any realistic range that this is +EV against. This probably won't be massively -EV, but it is -EV and it's not even close to being +EV even against the most optimistic range. This play is 100% for FE, but how much does hero have - given the history here?

Everybody realizes the lack of real equity here, right?

Hero is 51% against 33-66. 49% to 88-99. 43% to TT. He's 46% against AKo. 40% against AK with the Ad. 40% against JJ-QQ. 35% to KK. 27/30 to AA with/without a diamond. Of course he's also like 20% equity against Axs of diamonds.

There is literally just about no real hand hero has any equity edge over besides worse bare flush draws. That 1% edge over small pocket pairs is lost to rake.

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I think this is a rather accurate range for him. I'm not very good at any complex math equations so I don't know how often he needs to be bluffing (with a hand he isn't calling a shove with) to make this push profitable, but I imagine he is bluffing here with a pretty decent frequency given history. I'd say this shove is probably around nuetral EV, but it's hard to say without doing the math.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

125,730 games 0.005 secs 25,146,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 2d 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.798% 40.58% 00.22% 51020 275.50 { KdTd }
Hand 1: 59.202% 58.98% 00.22% 74159 275.50 { 22+, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, A7s, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, QdJd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Q7s, Jd9d, Jd8d, J7s, T7s, 9d8d, 97s, 9d6d, 9d5d, 87s, 8d6d, 8d5d, 74s+, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, AKo, A7o, 87o }