Re: Bet I made with a yankees fan today
IMO, the price is just about fair value.
JerseyDP linked to Baseball Prospectus, but those numbers are not the best numbers to use. Instead, BP themselves have two better projections linked to that page:
"Initial" projection: 18.4%
Pecota projection: 27.3%
ELO projection: 33.6%
Pecota and ELO are projection systems that uses projected statistics of the players, while the "initial" system uses statistics so far this season. IMO, Pecota and ELO are better indicators of the future, thus I think the better number is closer to 30% than 18%. And that's why I think you made a bet that is close to fair value.
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