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Old 06-09-2007, 02:55 PM
Vertical Taco Vertical Taco is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Stealing Gas Money
Posts: 135
Default Re: Simple Probability Question

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You have a 3 table, 30 person tournament and the top 6 people get paid. The tables are numbered 1, 2 and 3. Assuming that there is no skill difference, what are the chances of at least one person from table 1 making it to the money.

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This is not a simple problem unless you make unrealistic assumptions. There isn't enough information.

Others have assumed that equal skill means that the players are not only equally likely to place first, but that other places do not depend on the locations of the players who finish first. This is unrealistic. If a player right next to you is accumulating chips en route to winning, this decreases your chance to place second. It should be more likely that at least one player from table 1 finishes in the money than that at least one player cashes from a random list of 6 players.

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I believe that Lucky is simply trying to determine the probability of one player from table 1 making the money. Lets assume 6 players out of the 30 are selected at random without any poker being played - what are the odds of a player from table one being 'selected'?

I believe that might be a logical way of removing any extenuating circumstance such as chip accumulation.
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