Re: A Rejection of Sklansky
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If you list the FOUR indexed outcomes, boy-boy, boy-girl, girl-boy, girl-girl, even idiots should get this right.
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OK, I'm an idiot, but this is driving me nuts if the chance isn't 50%. The set-up stated 50% probability of a boy, which means 50% probability of a girl. Unless the fact the first child was girl indicates a bias towards girls, I don't see how it can't be 50%. But then, I missed the Monty Hall Problem the first time, though I do get the explanation.
If it isn't 50% how is that different from say a poker situation. I miss 10 flush draws in a row. Isn't my chance of making the 11th flush try the same as the first?
If someone answers this and I'm wrong, please explain the difference in the two situations.
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