Re: Is Raising on the River with nutflush on paired board -EV
without any reads this is an easy raise.
It is super rare that someone will slowplay a set or bottom two on both the flop and the turn so you are ahead 99% of the time here. Because of this, it does not matter what he will call with because you are never behind (yes, I am ignoring the fact that, from the tone of your post, you probably lost this hand when it was actually played). The most likely hand that beats you is probably 99 but there is obviously absolutely no reason from the action going into the river that 99 should make up any substantial portion of his range.
Without reads I don't know what he will call with but it is probably AK, KQ, K9s, A4 if you make it 12,500 and AK, K9, A4 if you shove.
You absolutely can not fold to a rereraise but you should get nervous at that point. I would probablhy shove the river.
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