[luckyme]

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The question I'm poking around is whether the pre-first flip 50-50 bet, which is a game-theory protection approach to it, has any connection to the 50-50 expectation that I would base my wanting to bet the way the coin flips the 1st time. Actually, I don't think it matters if we know the coin is bent or not, if I'm dealing with a unknown 'normal' coin and it flips heads the first time I'd want to bet even money on heads the second time.


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You are confusing me. On the Second Flip, Do you know the coin has been bent or not? You say you would want to bet even money on Heads. Would you be just as happy to bet even money on Tails? If not, why not?

PairTheBoard

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Sorry for any confusion, I'm trying to sort out the concept(s) of 50-50.

Bent case - I know it is bent by an unknown amount in an unknown direction flipped heads on the 1st toss.

Random new coin case - a supposedly normal coin just flipped heads for the 1st time.

1st question, a math one - I want to bet even money ( setting all 'he's out to getcha' worries aside) that the coin will land heads the 2nd time. In both the bent and unbent cases. Is that sound?

2nd question, and the real point of my post - is the 50-50 concept I used to protect myself in the first flip of the bent coin really the same 50-50 concept that I'm using when I want to bet even money on heads on the 2nd flip of the fair coin.

Perhaps I'm stumbling with this because the bent coin pre 1st flip I'm not dealing with reality and merely using a strategy that protects my position. No claim is made that there is an actual 50-50 chance in results.

In the 2nd bet cases, I have a test result, and essentially applying some version of the 'burned by a hot stove' reasoning. Iow, once an actual physical system is in place and knowing I can't possible have all the info involved, and knowing that a physical system is never perfect the specific result in this expected 50-50 split seems to be an different 50-50 concept.

In the bent coin one 50-50 never was thought of as a property of the coin. In the 'normal' coin, 50-50 is actually being treated as a baseline expectation.

One 50-50 seems to deal with actual properties of the coin ( let that terminology slide) and the other doesn't deal with them at all.

thanks, luckyme