[luckyme]

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What are the worst odds you would take to bet Heads after the First Flip? That will tell us how you are incorporating your No-Information into your Known Information about the First Flip.


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Perhaps my friends may operate at a different level than most friends, some have signing authority on my chequing account. So, let's leave the 'he's trying to screw you' part aside and just say he's in an investigative mode like I am.

The question I'm poking around is whether the pre-first flip 50-50 bet, which is a game-theory protection approach to it, has any connection to the 50-50 expectation that I would base my wanting to bet the way the coin flips the 1st time. Actually, I don't think it matters if we know the coin is bent or not, if I'm dealing with a unknown 'normal' coin and it flips heads the first time I'd want to bet even money on heads the second time.

My view is the 50-50 that I refer to for that 1st bent coin flip is a different 50-50 than the one that makes me want to bet even money on heads on any coin if the 1st flip is heads. Trying to put a number on my EV by doing that is on a different topic, I'm focusing on the 'nature' of those two 50-50's.

thanks for looking at this, btw, luckyme