[luckyme]

I have a friend bend a coin as much as he wants out of my sight. We agree on an even money bet on the 1st flip. I randomize my choice 50-50.

It flips heads, 3rd party judge reports to us blind.

I want to do another even money bet on the 2nd flip. I'm +/=EV taking heads this time. The range could be from 0 to 1. Is my blind start and 50-50 assumption now irrelevant or am I actually building on it?

If a different unknown coin is flipped 6 times, all heads, I'm tempted to say "hey, let's see that bloody coin!" Where does that come from, other than my theoretical 50-50 expectation?

I'm starting to think there is a blending of two concepts going on both involving 50-50. One is the bet-protection that the first either-or situation causes. The other is the theoretical expectation of a fair coin which we compare a string of results to.

Is it a different 50-50 that is being referred to in those cases? the 1st flip one and the repeated test one. That's what it looks like to me but I'm a Sklamorian.

luckyme