[BobJoeJim]

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This bet can't win, and only pays 200-1.

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This is false. DUCY?

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Heh, of course ICY, but hyperbole makes EVERYTHING better. I don't even think the end of the world bet was literally ZERO EV; just because I can't figure out a way that the world could've ended and a bettor then received some form of payout, doesn't necessarily mean it's impossible [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I don't see either bet as literally being a 0% chance (at the time it was offered), and I'm also not entirely convinced that the end of the world possibility was really 500 times less likely than Bush getting elected in the 2008 election. 300 times less likely, perhaps, but if so the Bush bet is still lower EV.

Nothing is impossible, only highly improbable. There are absolutely no absolutes.

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If you think there is a way to get paid on an end of world type bet, then you pick the date, and I will take as much action as you want. I say it won't end, you say it will. I will give you $1 Million for every $1 wagered. I am even willing to take up to say $1 Million in wagers on this. If ya win, I will pay ya out in Hell. How does that sound?

-Brendan

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I don't think that there IS a way to get paid on an end-of-the-world bet. I just don't think that it's necessarily impossible. I am not omniscient, so the fact that I personally can't comprehend a way to get paid on such a wager does not automatically mean that such a way does not exist. Yes, this is a purely philosophical point.

From a gambling perspective, although I don't necessarily feel the odds are literally zero, since I don't consider anything to be truly impossible, I do see the odds as incalculable given my current knowledge. I have no reason to think that a million to one payout is +EV, and in fact I firmly suspect it isn't, as obviously do you and anyone else with half a brain. I do suspect that there may be a payout which would make this bet +EV, but it would probably have to be something like 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000 to 1, give or take a few dozen orders of magnitude. This is because I believe nothing is impossible. I still wouldn't TAKE the bet at those odds, though, because for one thing I'm not actually sure of what the odds may be, and also because the risk-of-ruin factor of bets that are THAT unlikely to hit can make them worth avoiding even if they are +EV for certain.