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Old 06-06-2007, 09:20 PM
mixmastermattyk mixmastermattyk is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 278
Default Re: Is there value in this river bet?

There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of value in this river bet, I don't think. The only possible hands that would call the river bet (that you beat) are a set of 9s or 4s that were afraid you had aces (and called you down anyway), or a seriously donkish two pair. What do you think are the likelihood he holds these hands? The other hands that call a bet that puts them all-in here are back door straights or flushes. Given the size of the bet and the strength you're shown, if you are called on the river you are fare more likely to be shown one of these hands.

Your other options are a far smaller value bet (1/2 pot or less) or if you fear a backdoor draw you could put a blocker bet, or otherwise check/call hoping he bluffs missed diamonds.

If villain isn't bad, he's unlikely calling the turn pot-bet without a flush draw + another draw (straight draw/spades). This river is fairly dangerous, but most of the time I'll check/call here, which could possibly be a leak, but I think it's far more +EV than a pot-sized value bet on this board.
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