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Old 06-06-2007, 07:35 PM
bigpooch bigpooch is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,330
Default Re: limit 5CD: Would you even consider not capping with a full house h

First of all, the BB DID NOT cap it, so he doesn't have your
hand beat [If he did, he should cap it.] and may even have
something like a small full house that started off as trips
(not everyone draws two to small/medium trips from his spot)
or aces up or kings up. He is also likely to call just one
more bet on the end since he called two bets cold on the end
already.

Thus, you only need to have the best hand on the end just
over 1/3 of the time since I believe the pot won't get raked
any further due to the extra three big bets on the end.
[You expect your opponents to put in two of the bets and you
only have to put in one.]

Second, the small blind has at least a complete hand, so you
may have to ask yourself what his minimum 3-betting hand
would be, given how he plays. If you think his worst check
reraising hand is 22233, then capping is clearly best, since
with 888TT, you are even favored to have the best boat!

You discarded a jack, so there are only about 1/4 as many
jacks full hands. [The CO is likely to have a pair which is
at least a pair of eights and it's very unlikely to be tens
or jacks, and likely to be KK.] It looks as if the big
blind started with two pairs such as queens up/kings up or
aces up (maybe even jacks up or nines-up, but that isn't as
likely), so there aren't too many full houses that the small
blind can end up with that are bigger than eights full.

If you don't think the SB will reraise with less then sevens
full, then you have a crying call and not a cap. If you
think he would only cap with sixes full or better,
surprisingly, you have a technically correct cap, as you
beat also sevens full, and there aren't the full four ranks
of full houses (on average) bigger than eightsfull: assume
the BB has one rank covered and the CO has the other, plus
you've seen a jack go by.

Also, if there is any chance the SB is making a big mistake
such as checkreraising with less than a full house, you have
an easy cap. On the other hand, if I were the small blind,
and even had your hand, I wouldn't 3-bet it and would simply
hope for an overcall. To 3-bet from the SB "correctly", he
needs more than just a small boat, and technically even a
hand such as 99922 is insufficient, but these are $1-2
players: they make many mistakes such as calling on the end
with trips in multiway pots that are raised on the end.
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