[kaby]

6max 2/4 limit

First hand at the table, no datamined/from earlier sessions stats.

MP openraises, folded to hero with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 in BB who calls.

Flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB): Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.

Turn is 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4BB)

Hero bets, MP calls.

River is T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6BB):

Hero ?



I think the standard play is to c/f here but I did some calcs and it appears I should bet.

I gave him the following range (I think a K or T raises somewhere, as does JJ+). I think most villains take A high to showdown imho but I could be wrong.

99-66,AQs-AJs,A9s-A8s,QJs,J9s,AQo-AJo,A9o

So 50 Ace high combos, 18 pair combos and 8 Q/J high combos.

EV of betting when he calls A high and folds the rest:
(26/76)*6-(50/76)*1=+1.39BB

EV of betting when he only folds pairs:
(18/76)*6-(58/76)*1=+.65BB

So I should bet? Or is my logic/calc/range wrong?