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Old 06-06-2007, 05:31 PM
ShakeZula06 ShakeZula06 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: On the train of thought
Posts: 5,848
Default Re: It\'s a shame about my street

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Yes, once the probabilities changed, the insurance company would build the dam rather than pay out. But the point is that buying insurance is -EV, as you admit.

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ALL insurance is -$EV. The point of buying insurance is trading some $EV for reduction in variance.
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