Thread: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
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Old 06-05-2007, 09:58 PM
Paul Thomson Paul Thomson is offline
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Default Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
[ QUOTE ]
Profitable doesn't mean most profitable. We win roughly .25 * 260 = 65, and sometimes win .25 * 500 = 125. Say that he pays off on spade river 1/2 the time, then we make about $63 in the long run. So FE has to be much higher than 20% for betting to be better.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, this was my point. assuming that all 12 of our outs are clean and we don't have any implied odds, we still need Villain to fold close to 33% for pushing to be more profitable THAN checking.

The question is will he fold KQ 33% of the time?

edited for math.
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