Re: Count my outs...
Am I completely insane to suggest capping this turn? A few reasons come to mind:
(1) I think giving ourselves only 5.5 outs in this situation is needlessly pessimistic. IMO you're going to be good 85%-90% of the time if you spike a pair on the river. A cap is still not +EV by itself, but it's not a huge spew either. If you're up against 4h5h or 77, oh well, nice hand, enjoy an extra Starbucks on me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
(2) You've already said that both EP and button are aggressive enough to be betting / raising with a wide range, and I can think of several holdings that you want EP to fold that he might have bet but might just fold for 3 BB cold back to him. If he folds 76, you've just bought yourself 4 outs in this enormous pot for 1 measly extra BB.
(3) Also, b/3b the flop and c/r'ing the turn absolutely screams "I've got a monster!" You may get a slightly better hand to only call, not raise, you on the river if you bet out when pairing up (which I agree you should).
(4) Someone's gonna cap this turn about 98% of the time, so since no one's folding here anyway it might as well be you. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
Disclaimer: None of the above applies if the cap is 5 bets. In that case, I just call here and curse my luck as I muck when the river doesn't pair me.
Mook
|