Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
Assuming we are 3:1 dog (you can mess around with what you think is calling range is):
.85(488*.25)+.85(-222*.75) = -$37.50
.15*266 = $40
$40 - $37.50 = $2.50
It's slightly +EV if he folds 15% of the time. 20% is closer to a +5BB decision.
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