Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
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I like calling the flop, unless he's shown he'll donk/fold an awful lot. His read that he overvalues hands also makes me wanna call, because our implied odds are bigger and he's never folding any king to a flop raise. I'd like a flop raise with the NFD, since it usually gives us 3 more outs and he could also 3bai w/ a worse draw.
As played, I think with the extra gutshot outs we picked up, I like a push. We're about a 3:1 dog against his calling range, so he only needs to fold the turn ~15% to make a shove profitable.
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yeah, we have the same thoughts on the flop. At the same time, he played such weird lines like donking the flop alot that I thought there was a decent chance that it was an underpair that would fold. However, I'm still like > 50% against an underpair so why should I even try and push it. If he calls my raise, I'm surely less than 50%. And the worst part of the raise is that I should probably call a push from him because I'll be getting 2-1. So I stuck alot of money in the pot when I'm almost surely way behind...raising sucks.
Do you mind showing your math for how if he folds 15% of the time that it's profitable?
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