Re: The river bluff-raise
He has to fold greater than 48% of the time which probably makes it close. There are some competing thoughts that came to mind that have already been mentioned:
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[the move] seems pretty logical to me after that river card and his weak bet.
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This river seems like a great card for your range given your flop check; also, after he bet the turn, his small river lead OOP does seem like some sort of blocking bet with a weak made hand
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You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air
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I can't imagine you raising one pair for value that often on the river much but you might. Basically your range here is either a straight or air and I think because of this you will get looked up light fairly often.
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Basically the question comes down to how often does Villain have a weak made hand (JT,88,A9) and how frequently does he pay off a river raise with those hands, how often is he following through on a turn bluff or semi-bluff (w/ like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or QJ or air), and how often does he have any other hand that will pay off a river raise.
I think your river bluff-raise size is nice in that it’s big enough and the board is such that you are representing a pretty strong range (like AK at least, most of the time) and it will make him think twice about calling off with a Ten or worse since it appears you are willing to commit yourself.
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