[VickreyAuction]

Hmm...I'm thinking that MP2's flop donkbet means that we're behind to something. Even so, we may have more than the 33% equity we need for 3 people because of the OESD and overcard. The problem is, we have no guarentee that SB's going to come along for the ride (i.e. call 2 cold on the flop). If our raise folds SB out, then we (probably) don't have enough equity to be betting for value heads-up...the OESD + 1 clean overcard would give us 41% equity heads-up against a guy with a paired J or Q. If he's donkbetting with a paired 9, then we DO have 50% equity.

Heads-up with MP3, I do think we're behind on the flop...which is another reason I really like going for a free card. If we check behind on a blank turn, and then hit our straight on the river, he'll probably lead out on the river. We can then raise him, and extract 2 bets. If we miss on the river too, then it's an easy fold, and we only paid 1 SB to chase.

Pokerstove:

Board: Qh 9h Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.5152 % 40.91% 00.61% { AdTd }
Hand 2: 58.4848 % 57.88% 00.61% { Jc5d }

Board: Qh 9h Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.3030 % 49.70% 00.61% { AdTd }
Hand 2: 49.6970 % 49.09% 00.61% { 9c5d }


EDIT: I wrote this post before I saw Bozlax's responses (as unbelievable as that may seem, since he wrote his about a half hour ago). I still like the free card play. I think it does work enough in the micros, and if not (if MP3 fires again on the turn), you're still getting the odds to chase anyway.