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Old 06-04-2007, 12:26 PM
matt42s matt42s is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 199
Default Re: Variance Please Help

You can search on money management to find more accurate numbers but I remember reading that a 200BB swing and a couple of 150's in 100k hands is not uncommon. My experience is slightly worse than that because I suck at poker - most of us do.
You shouldn't "expect" a reasonable downswing - treat them all like a learning experience and find your leaks.
Like this one
Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ac Ad]
JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2
polochips: folds
Nexus6mAA: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Ah 8h 5s]
Nexus6mAA: bets $1
JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2
Nexus6mAA: calls $1
*** TURN *** [Ah 8h 5s] [6c]
Nexus6mAA: checks
JaneTheHot: bets $2
Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $4
JaneTheHot: raises $2 to $6
Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $8
Betting is capped

When you get hit with the c/r on the turn - there are 32 ways Nexus has a straight, 36 ways for 2pr and 9 ways for a smaller set. the str8 caps every time, you lose 2bb more than a calldown. A lot of ppl aren't aggressive enough to c/r 2pr on the turn but if Nexus is, he/she will probably calldown & you make 1 more.
This 3bet is -EV

Your PT screenshot shows A9s vpip=53 with pfr 19. I haven't played 1/2 for a long while but maybe you're open limping A9s too often and in the wrong spots (of course only being dealt 51 times is a very small sample, but is it the only hand you're doing it with?)
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