[SeaEagle]

Give yourself full credit for the case 3.
Give yourself about half credit for the remaining 9 outs to a FH.
Assume you have to improve to win well over 100% of the time.

5.5 outs means you need about 7.5-1. If the turn only goes 3 bets you have odds, if the turn goes 4 bets you're missing by just a tad.

You also have to consider that you don't have good implied odds if the board pairs. You really don't want to c/c with a FH, but if you bet out (which I think you should), you'll likely only get get raised by hands that beat you.

IMO, the turn is so close that I'd be inclined to call, fold the river UI, and b/c on a paired board. Personally, I tend to stick around when it's a close decision on large pots like this due to the pychological impact of throwing away the best hand on a 30BB+ pot.