[owsley]

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yeah i agree it's really annoying when people try to make educated predictions based on advanced statistics instead of guessing and talking out their ass. i apply this line of thinking to poker as well which is why i'm a millionaire.

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it doesnt make you any smarter if you look at the pythagorean record and assume they are unlucky. pythag's aren't "advanced", there's a lot of noise in it.

KBZ is also on with his point, teams with bad bullpens routinely have better pythag records than they may deserve, and it is probably more pronounced this early in the season.

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but that argument does not account for the fact that any reasonable projection had their bullpen producing much more, which is a way of getting unlucky, so its square 1. rivera anyone?

now that also doesnt neceassrily mean they will turn it around either, but it DOES still suggest that they got unlucky.