[curtains]

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Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

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According to my program, 5.7% to flop two pair or better plus another 5.9% to flop a pair+draw or combined draw hand that has 11+ outs against an overpair (ie something you don't mind shoving with on the flop)

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Does the program consider a board pair still counting as two pair. Example: a flop of 8JJ.

I'm not a big fan of shoving here. The UTG player will be able to call a reasonable number of times and you have two fish that you're trying to force out too. The chances that you steal the pot is pretty small IMO.

Calling looks like it isn't quite worth it with the numbers quoted above.

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Sometimes you'll flop a gutshot or something and itll get checked around. Yes it's rare but definitely happens sometimes. Same can be said if you flop one pair. It just feels like there's too much money in the pot and that we do have fold equity on some of our draws.