[DonkeyKongSr]

So, the 5 cases are...

WWWW: .6*.6*.4*.6=8.6%
LWWWW: .6*.4*.6*.4=5.8%
WLWWW: .6*.4*.6*.4=5.8%
WWLWW: .6*.6*.6*.4=8.6%
WWWLW: .6*.6*.4*.4=5.8%

Now how do I combine them into one percentage? It should be something between 5.8% and 8.6% I beleive, but how can I get to that number?

Hmmm, on second thought I'm guessing it's a weighted total with 20% to each, assuming each situation has an equal chance to happen (i.e. winning 4 in a row isn't any harder than winning 2 or 3 in a row)...

(3*.2*5.8%)+(2*.2*8.6%)=6.9%

Correct? Or maybe I screwed this up altogether and those 5 percentages are addditive.