[Dreamer]

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Normally I would post this on SMP but my other thread makes it relevant here.

It seems like a lot of people think it is admirable, or romantic or exciting to risk millions of dollars on gambling games with little or no edge. They somehow equate that with other entrepreneurs who pursue their dreams with little thought of the downside.

But don't you think there is a difference? I'm all for betting big money with an edge that justifies it. And I have no problem if people want to gamble big money without this edge. But to call this second category "admirable" seems totally wrong. Not when the world is in the state it is in. One well known hi roller professes strong religious conviction and goes on to lose half a million in a golf game he has little chance in. The loss doesn't affect him much, meaning he could have done some good with it. Fine. That's his right. But to ADMIRE the fact that he has gamble? Cmon. He wasn't risking his money in the hopes of starting a company that would turn apples into fuel. He was betting a half a million dolllars on a GOLF GAME. With the worst of it. You might admire that kind of activity. Forgive me if I don't.

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Sklansky makes one foolish assumption in his post. A professional gambler SHOULD always look for bets that are favorable, or at least break even. Sklansky incorrectly assumes that said "hi roller" made those golf bets with the knowledge that the bets had negative equity. In fact, Sklansky has absolutely no knowledge as to whether that $500,000 loss provided opportunities to actually earn much more in future golf bets, or if said hi roller is even a lifetime loser in golf betting.

I completely understand the point, that admiring a gambler who is willing to risk it all or bet huge amounts of money on coin flips is hardly admirable, but why he would choose to use the golf example he did, and worse, bring religious beliefs into the equation, well, that much I do not understand. But hey, at least he didn't post said hi roller's freakin' address on his forum and let it sit there for hours.

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No, a professional gambler should always look for bets where he has an edge combined with reasonable variance.
He should always look to bet a kelly fraction of his bankroll which relates to the edge he estimates.
The kelly fraction allows for some uncertainties in the estimation.
Even if you have a 10% edge, betting 30% of your bankroll means its certain that long term you will go broke.

D.