View Single Post
  #6  
Old 05-31-2007, 06:24 PM
jesse8888 jesse8888 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Missing bets with King high
Posts: 833
Default Re: Push on the bubble with 5 high?

You've gotta push one of your next 3 hands, that much is obvious. So pushing is totally ok IMHO.

ICM says your chips are currently worth $24.21 (thats if you fold after posting 200 of them). If you push and he folds your chips are worth $29.50. If you push and he calls and you lose, you chips are obviously worth 0. If you push and he calls an you win, your chips are worth about $38.80 (used a standard icm calculator for that)

Its safe to say that if he calls, you are gonna be a 2 to 1 dog pretty much all the time (sometime a bit worse, but maybe he'll call you with 22 or A2 or something to even that out). So lets say he calls 20% of the time. Thats:

80% you have 29.50
13% you have 0
7% you have 38.80

So with 20% calls, your EV is 26.32.
30% calls works out to 24.53
33% calls works out to 24.03

So basically, if you think he'll call 30% of the time or less, you should push. It's pretty close, and I'd have laid it down, but I don't think pushing is bad at all.
Reply With Quote