Re: 3-bet river with top set?
If this were live 2/4 I'd say that it was likely that the villain was chasing a gut shot and would definitely have limped with AT. AT would make him a double gut shot on the flop with 1 over card. That would be (3)As, (4)9s, (4)Ks (only 2 really, but he won't know that) 1.5x2 for the double gut shot. Add that up and you'd get: (4)Ks for the nuts (4)9s for the bottom of a strait so make it 2.5 outs (3)As for a pair, so make it 1.5 outs = 4+2.5+1.5 = 8 outs. He might be estimating 14 outs, but that would be an over estimation, though 8 might be a little pessimistic as well.
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