[kleath]

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You're math is flawed

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No its not.


Yes, you are in a +EV situation when you hold KQs on the button. But it isn't hugely +EV if both you and your opponents are playing well. So betgo is suggesting to avoid "small +EV" spots. If you define "small +EV spots" as anything with a +EV less than say +.5 BB on average than you are actually folding a ton more than you'd realize. Because standard super easy steals with good cards don't have nearly the +EV that you would expect...you average much less than stealing the pot in the long run.

And if you fold all those hands less than your "small edge threshold" your calculation about what is +EV becomes tainted because now you can't count on action from marginal hands that would insta call a player that pushes anything that is just a shade better than +0 EV (or hell -1 BB EV)

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Say I am pushing KQs on the button with 9xBB M of 4.5. Say I get called by top 20% hands. Let us ignore the times both opponents have top 20% hands, and say I get called 40% of the time.

Then the 60% of the time I steal, I pick up 2xBB. When I get called, I am 51.4% to win. The average total pot assuming both opponents have me covered is 19.2xBB. So my average gain if called is .87xBB. .6 * 2 + .4 *.87 = +1.55 xBB, which I do not consider a small gain.

You could run this with some automated tool, and it would give you a similar answer.

Now if I push KQs UTG 9-handed for 9xBB, it is about even. Pushing this hand UTG for 12xBB is cEV-, but pushing it UTG for 6xBB is very cEV+.

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In that example with calling ranges of 20% You're getting called 36% of the time not 40%.

Also Jon you are quite wrong in saying KQs is a close shove in that spot, with large antes shoving is a HUUUGE edge. You're simulations as you say are flawed, there is no way for it to be close when KQs is ahead of their calling ranges.