Re: when do I dump this dog?
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If you do want to defend 3rd, then you've got to give it up on 4th when he catches. Whether he has anything in the hole, you're heads-up with four streets to go against a guy who is probably beating the crap out of you. The pot just isn't large enough to make this worth battling over.
Stubborn only goes so far. When he catches good, you've got to fold up the tents.
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FWIW my first response about never folding was off the cuff, in reaction to people wanting us to fold 3rd.
I think 5th actually should be a fold, because I think there's a good chance villain would have check folded 4th or 5th if he had two bad ones down.
And even in the best case, where he still has two random downcards on 5th, we are not really in that good of shape considering the pot is small and we have big RIO on 6th and 7th.
Still I think folding 3rd/4th is more clearly wrong than calling 5th.
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