[Nate.]

Tory --

Once you bet the flop you have roughly 1000 left. If you fold (we'll round off the big stack's chances of getting a ticket to 100%):

The three shortest stacks are 2600, 1300, 1000. As a very rough approximation, P(you don't get a ticket) = (2600/4900) * (1300/2300) + (1300/4900) * (2600/3600) ~= 50%

If you call and lose P(no ticket) = 100%. If you call and win you'd have half the chips in play and P(no ticket) would be roughly (2600/7000) * (1300/4400) + (1300/7000) * (2600/5700) ~= 23%, so P(ticket) ~= 77%.

So since the utilities involved are (roughly) .77, .5, and 0, you need to be roughly a 2:1 favorite to call. Note the big discrepancy between pot odds and "utility odds." I really doubt you're a 2:1 favorite here vs. his range, though it's close. I'd fold.

But... yikes, don't put yourself in this spot. Honestly vs. weak opponents I like a flop check (especially since the chips you win aren't as important as they would be in any other setting). As weak as it sounds, I'd fold to heavy action and wait for safe cards before making reasonable bets. In these spots you should err on the small side when you're value-betting, because the marginal-utility effects are so great. Overbetting this flop is not good.

Of course, if your opponents make you fold every single hand, then you have to adjust and eventually make a stand. In practice--and I've played tons of these sunday million satellites--this doesn't happen.

Hope this tough spot had a happy ending.

--Nate