View Single Post
  #5  
Old 05-28-2007, 07:08 PM
bigpooch bigpooch is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,330
Default Re: Check-folding trips. (5cd 3/6)

I wouldn't even expect to win 1/8 of the time here with 222
(that's about what you need: $6 to win $43); besides, there
is also not an insignificant chance the cutoff makes a
better hand than 222 (assuming you hold no relevant cards,
it would be about 16% of the time).

If the button is half decent, he should have a have better
trips or even better. There is some chance he may have
capped it with a draw, but there is no draw worth capping it
in a 3-way pot unless he believes that you have two pairs
and is trying to squeeze you out postdraw.

Also, you can't really always call with 222 here; you would
be calling much too often when you have drawn two. You may
have to muck all your small trips (even 444) and make some
crying calls on some better hands. If the button is half
decent, he should be drawing one to all his high trips, so
as to get a call not just from you, but also from the cutoff
if he should make a hand like two pairs. Psychologically,
the button expects you to pay off with trips, so most decent
players would have medium trips or better in this spot.

If you pay off with 222 or 333, that's a small leak in your
play. If you pay off with 444 or 555, it's not as bad, but
still probably wrong against a decent button. If you pay
off with 666 or 777, it's only one bet and you can at least
beat 555.

A factor that might make you fold even more often is if the
cutoff is a calling station (can't let go of any two pairs
and even pays off with just high pairs). The button expects
SOMEBODY to pay off, so he's likely not betting a worse hand
than medium trips. In this case, I would probably muck even
a hand such as 88872.
Reply With Quote