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Old 05-28-2007, 09:24 AM
Hielko Hielko is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,468
Default Estimating true winrate when \'sklansky bucks\' winrate is known

I know how I can construct a confidence interval when I know the number of hands played, the sample variance, the and sample winrate. Does anyone know how the accuracy of the confidence interval can be improved when the 'sklansky bucks' winrate is know?

For those who don't know the term yet: the sklanksy bucks winrate is the winrate you would obtain when you would earn exactly your pot equity in every hand that has a showdown and it can be calculated using the PokerEV software.

For example, I have played 17,087 hands of 25NL this month and earned 559,69 dollar giving me a winrate of 6,55BB/100 and I have a standard deviation/100 hands of 39,20BB. Using this data one could construct a confidence interval that is centered around 6,55BB/100. Now we also know my equity adjusted winrate (706,61$ - 8,3BB/100). I guess that using this winrate instead of the sample winrate would improve the confidence interval, but by how much? Would you need an 'equity adjusted' variance where the variance is always zero in a pot with a showdown?
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