[Duke]

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The second one isn't speaking to a later prediction. It's basically saying that if people were supposed to disagree forever, and they didn't, it would be a hole in the theory.


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What? What? What? What?

not a "later prediction" but "forever"

What? What? What? What?

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He's not specifically addressing the complex set of predictions set forth by Christianity. He is addressing (I think):

1. Set 1 of predictions
A. People will disagree

If people don't disagree, then that prediction is wrong. It's a hole in the theory

He is not specifically addressing:

2. Set 2 of predictions
A. People will initially disagree <--- first prediction
B. People will all agree after X000 years <--- later prediction

The second one would have a hole if people did not initially disagree, or after Y0000 (I bumped up the time frame by an order of magnitiude to make a point) years still didn't agree.

If there's a prediction in a theory, and the prediction is not met, then that's a piece of evidence against the theory.

Now let's talk about "insiders" and "outsiders." First let's look at Set 1 of predictions.

If there are a lot of detractors, and set 1 is the set of predictions that we're discussing, then an insider shouldn't worry about it, because they were predicted. If an outsider is looking at the information, then it's a strike against the theory. It shouldn't matter to an outsider if that was predicted or not.

Now for set 2. He wasn't speaking to that, but if you're an insider, any deviation from those predictions should be a strike against the theory. Namely, if either nobody disagrees ever, or if the time for everyone to agree is long gone and people still disagree, then there's a hole there (as the predictions were not met).

If you're an outsider, you need only look at the number of detractors, at whatever time. Detractors == some evidence against it. An insider telling you that "they predicted that nobody would agree" shouldn't change that opinion, unless you're an insider.

I think that's more clear, but still looks pretty messy to me.