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Old 05-18-2007, 04:32 AM
bumpking bumpking is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 164
Default Re: OT: Does your arrogance hurt your results?

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you choose to play a few games vs. a lot b/c of table selection, or to not play while conditions are not great but still profitable (incl. RB), often you're making less money total, even if you're making more per hour or per table.


[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that at certain times the games are especially tough. I totally get your point that even though your $/tourney goes down, you're still making money. That's assuming you are one of the very very best (which you actually are). But what about every other player besides you and bigjoe?

It comes back to the scenario I initially posted. If there are 9 pros/regs playing, I can guarantee you that some, if not all, of them will lose money at that table, even including SNE rakeback. Why not cut those tables out? The games are getting so unbelievably tough now that you have to try to squeeze every edge possible.

Here are my results just from the $105's (since I've got more data here than anywhere else). I also use a program I wrote that measures every coin flip, the ICM equity if I would've won or lost, the odds that I should win or lose that flip, and therefore an actual $ amount that I got "lucky" or "unlucky". Therefore these results don't have too much to do with luck since I've back-factored that out.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
# of pros/regs: $/trny $/trny (with 50% rk)
--------------- ------ -------------------
&lt;=1 $13.76 $21.26
2 $14.33 $21.83
3 $2.39 $9.89
4 $2.70 $10.20
5 $1.74 $9.24
6+ -$8.44 -$0.94
</pre><hr />

Unfortunately, the tourneys with just 0, 1, and 2 regs/pros make up 10% of my tourneys. BUT, tourneys with 6+ regs/pros makes up 24% of my tourneys. If I were to cut those out, I would obviously make more money by not losing directly, but also would most likely make more $/trny by being able to spend more time and analysis on the other 80% of tables.

To make a long story short, I just finished my latest code that table profiles for me. It worked sweet in today's session, so I've got my fingers crossed! Perhaps I could distribute it to the top 20-25 players and therefore make sure that only a few of us sit down together (obviously this wouldn't work due to such few tables at the $315s+, perhaps at the $210s, but almost for sure would work at the $105s).

-BK
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