[NoahSD]

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funny, I think it's a clear bet (1k, fold to shove). I don't think he's got a draw with the coldcall on a double paired board, and if he does he's not betting that much (esp since he has an ace a lot of the time and will check behind w/ showdown value). So, ignoring draws for that reason, he basically has a 7 or a 5 and will call/raise the river if you bet, and bet if you check (in which case betting is the same as check/calling), or he has a pair between 22 and TT, and he might fold to your bet and might call it, but will check behind on the river. So, betting is strictly superior to check-calling (when you eliminate draws), so it's just a question of how often he has a 7/5 here vs how often he calls with a smaller pair, and I think he has pairs often enough (and calls with them often enough) to make this a bet rather than a checkfold.

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i almost made this exact post, but i felt dirty saying bet-fold on the river and shoving is kinda big ... so i skipped posting.


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