Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
Nice post. I mostly agree. Although I think the fact that our flush beats a lot of lower flushes is really what pushes KT to a call and 98 to a fold, rather than the possibility of showing down a non-flush winner. But both are definitely considerations here.
I think on hand 2, though, you're discounting too heavily a 'float' with a mid pocket pair that you will lose to, but will fold to a river bluff. I also think you're overestimating how often people are double barreling after they float the flop. I think it's very rare. And top pair will be good so often here, that I think you have to vb if you hit an ace or a Q bec they WON'T bluff again, but you will be good so often that you shouldn't just c/f.
I'd like c/f better than c/c, though, I think. Definitely on an ace. Maybe on a Q. On a Q, c/c seems reasonable.
|