Re: Betting Baseball 2007
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i have the 2006 version and I think the book is very good and has useful information. I don't love the way he makes the line for instance through using:
runs scored * Pitchers runs allowed / League Average.
I've tried that method for other sports such as hockey and it just hasn't seemed to work well for me, i prefer to make offensive power ratings.
If you are interested in statistics and the sabermetric ideas then this is a real good book for you.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm neither advocating nor defending Michael Murray's methods. However, it seems like simply using offensive power ratings might work okay for a game like hockey but it's only half of the picture for baseball. Pitching is too important to be ignored in favor of simply offensive power ratings.
[/ QUOTE ]
yes, that is true offensive power ratings are only half the battle, I use the different theoretical era's as well to evaluate pitching.. i just don't quite like ranking an offense simply through runs scored as I don't feel it is very accurate.. the sabermetric equation will calculate the correct odds for you, however you have to be using precisely the correct "runs scored" and "runs allowed" numbers for that game, which isn't easy to do
|