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Old 05-16-2007, 02:50 PM
AragornX151 AragornX151 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Brooklyn
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Default Re: under repped flush, should i keep it that way?

My first instinct was to definitely bet here, but I actually think it's kinda an interesting hand.

The only hand that I see you stacking here is a smaller flush or maybe a lone deuce, which seems like an unlikely holding for him given that he cold called a raise on the button. AA-KK is very unlikely given the preflop lack of a reraise, but 77 and 88 would make sense (though he probably slowplays 77). Does 99-JJ call a river bet, or like A7? Probably not. So leading is unlikely to be effective against most holdings.

If he has a boat, it probably doesn't matter, though you're deep enough that you could consider folding if you think he's full. Still, his actions don't seem to jibe with a house, unless he backed into 8's full. I don't think I could ever fold here.

And if he has a medium hand, he'll probably just check it back to you. So where does the best chance to get value come from? Well, if you lead, I feel like most of his range either beats you and raises, or folds. There's just not much that calls you here unless villain is a real fish. What does 99-JJ beat?

If you check, you get a lot of checks back, but maybe air takes a final stab, or he turns the aforementioned 99-JJ into a bluff...

Honestly, I think you were much better off leading or check-raising the turn. The river seems unlikely to get you much profit no matter how you play it, and a spade on the river would have scared off any hands you beat. Am I way off here?
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