Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
I'm probably going to answer my own question here, but I'm going give approximate finish distributions if I win the hand and if I fold.
When I call, I'll say I get 1st 40% of the time, 2nd 45% of the time, and 3rd 15% of the time. Given this distro, my equity when I win the hand is ~$1084.
When I fold it's not looking good if I get ITM. I'd say I get 1st 5% of the time (probably generous), 2nd 20% of the time, and 3rd 75%. Approximate equity when I fold and get ITM is $698.
Also let's say I still get ITM 5% of the time when I fold and the SB wins, with the same finish distro as me getting ITM when the SB folds. Approximate equity when I fold, SB wins is $35 (holla).
.32x1084= $347 calling
.52x698 + .48x35= $379 when I fold
Tell me if I miscalculated anywhere there, I'm pretty tired.
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