[TomG]

Introduction

I've built an Excel worksheet to handicap based strictly on the analytic methods outlined in Michael Murray's book Betting Baseball 2007. Here is the methodology for those who aren't familiar...

Offensive power ratings are generated using the batting lineup's OB% and SLG% adjusted for the league average.

Pitching power rating uses the starting pitcher's xERA and his average distance. Whenever possible, I use the starting pitcher's average xERA from the last 3 seasons. There is room for subjectivity here as sometimes sample size forces me to manually adjust a pitcher's xERA or average innings pitched upward or downward towards a more "normal" number. After accounting for the starting pitcher's average distance, I use the team's bullpen average xERA. The team's total pitching power rating is the weighted average of the starting pitcher's xERA and the bullpen's xERA.

Using Michael Murray's methods, I calculate each teams expected runs scored by multiplying the team's offensive power rating by the opposing team's pitching power rating and dividing by the league's average runs scored. Bill James's Pythagorean Formula (using exponents taken from Pinnacle's total runs line) is used to convert each team's expected runs scored into each team's expected win %. I then add a flat 4% to the home team to account for home field advantage.

The result is an expected "true line" that I compare against the posted line for value.

My goals...

1) Bet overnight MLB moneylines using this system
2) Beat the closing line on the majority of games
3) Achieve a positive ROI over a large sample size

I will start out flat betting but I may switch to a Kelly system if/when I gain confidence in my ability to quantify the approximate value of each play. I will be betting my picks with my personal bankroll, but I cannot guarantee the accuracy and profitability of this system. It is as much an experiment as anything. Coat tail at your own risk!

Finally I would appreciate any suggestions/comments on this methodology. My interest is in creating and tweaking mathematical models. I generally have little/no personal opinion on any of the games. As such, I won't be able to comment on any subjective aspects of the matchups.

Good luck everyone!