Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
Hand 1 - Fold. We are behind here more than 85% of the time, which means we will have to hit our draw or bluff him off the best hand (which is unlikely).
On the turn, we are getting 3 to 1 odds on our FD (4 to 1). Villain has $165 left after he bets the turn (120 of which we can win on the river). We should be able to get another $40 out of him most of the time, when we hit on the river to break even.
However the river card is going to give us a second best hand a certain % of the time where we will lose a big pot to the Villain (nut flush vs 2nd nuts, boat vs flush). When we do have the best hand (hitting our draw) we stand to get very little action from the villain, because he will have a weak made hand most of the time (TPGK). We must also factor in the times when he checks the river, and we bluff him of the best hand/or bluff off our chips (which happens often in these spots).
This is a pretty marginal spot. Calling and folding are both fine IMO. Its more a question of playing style than anything. I would just like more information on my opponent to use against him on the river (ex. how often can I take the pot away on the river) before I make the turn call.
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