Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
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Actually, I am coming round to the idea of calling the turn in #1. He has a hand he wants to play, as evidenced by his flop check/raise. We may well only have seven outs though, but taken to an extreme, if we check/fold a board pairing club but bet 2/3 pot when we hit one of our seven outs, we will probably average enough to win with our play.
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If we only have seven outs, we need to make 125 on the river when we hit, which means that we basically have to shove (we have $140 left on the river). And he has to call us every time. He will not have a set every time and he will not call a shove with it every time, so the plan of check/folding the dirty outs and betting the clean outs heavy doesn't work IMO.
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