[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
Just for me, as practice, let me try to calcuate some type of odds here. There are 3 aces or two queens possible, so a total possible of 5 outs. Now, with the button and UTG playing this far through to the river, is it safe to assume that at least one of them is holding Ax or Qx? If so, then I put your outs to 4 or 4.5. This means you have about a 10% chance to improve?

At the turn you are calling just one big bet to a pot of 9.5bb, for a 9.5 to 1 pay out if you hit an ace or queen. This alone would make this a bad call.

But, I think there is still a great chance that you have the best hand, looking at the board and the looseness of the table, so I agree with your play.

Did I analyze this correctly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Button 3-bet preflop and on the flop, so I considered that there was a good chance that he had AA or KK.

Now, if UTG+3 had something like A9 or Qx, you are right that I would not have had the correct odds to improve to beat Button's AA or KK.

However, I could not tell if my outs were tainted. Afterall UTG+3 might have been calling with something like JT, in which case I would have had a full 5 outs to improve.

Nonetheless, even if you had slightly discounted my outs, I would probably have had a good chance of making up for that by collecting an extra bet or so on the turn or river if my hand had improved.

Possibly the most important point though, is as you suggested, that my hand might have been best.

So, with all the possibilities considered, I think that yes, you have correctly analysed why I called my hand down. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]