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Old 05-12-2007, 11:27 PM
NMcNasty NMcNasty is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 336
Default Re: Get away from QQ preflop vs peachy?

I actually think you can get your answer here with some math if you assume both players are playing a respectable game.

Peachy is a good enough player that he should know two things. One is that he's putting his opponents in what's most likely a push/fold situation, the other is that its just generally a bad idea to try and push someone off QQ+, and AK preflop. So he's either bluffing preflop for immediate EV (just hoping both players will fold) or he's raising with a good hand he's intending to call a push with. Since a flop is unlikely from his perspective he would need a bluff to win at least 2/3 of the time to be profitable since he's risking 1500 to win just 750. If he feels you have an average 3 betting range you're going to have QQ+ and AKs around 30% of the time and the CO will have something like that around 10% of the time. There's also the chance that someone does something stupid with a hand like 99 or worse. He's probably getting played back at around 40-50% of the time and he needs that number to be 33% or less if the bluff is going to be profitable. I doubt he would have a specific grasp of the numbers but I think you should give peachy credit enough to know that bluffing is normally bad here. So he's only going to have a hand powerful enough to call a push and thats just most likely going to be QQ+/AKs or better which of course makes it a fold for your QQ.

If he thinks your 3 betting range is wider than normal for whatever reason, a bluff could work but it would still be very thin.

Also, obviously if you do fold QQ and AKs here a bluff will show a huge profit, but it just can't be expected that getting QQ and AKs to fold is something peachy would have in mind, since so many players just follow the standard and play them for stacks.
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