Re: Missing outs
Naah, your heart's in the right place but there's too much uncertainty to count them as more than partial negative outs. Their overall effect is lost in larger effects; I think the biggest is the chance you'll lose on the redraw.
Your chances are certainly less than 9 outs twice, but how much less is a WAG. 7.5 outs twice gives you a 30% chance of winning--all I can really conclude is that it looks like a close decision.
Does anyone have a good estimate for how many outs to subtract for the redraw?
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