Missing outs
I have a question about reads and whether it's wise to subtract outs based on that read. I'll use a hand from yesterday for an example.
I have Kc9c in the SB, after the flop there pot is $50 and the board is Ac4cTd. I bet $25, that's raised to $80 then a $240 push, then after a long pause a call, I have $150 behind and am covered by the first raiser who will call if I call.
So, it's $150 to win just over $600 and I'm 9 outs to the nut flush, so that's a call, but what could they have.
I haven't raise a pot like this OOP without top pair, so they likely assume I have at least TP, first raiser could have any piece, but the all in I can only put on either AT or 44. If 44 then I lose two outs because if the board pairs I still lose, and the second caller I can see only having ATo or 2c3c or QcJc. He'd call instantly with a set, and the latter two seem more likely, as he'd likely raise ATo. (High hand jack pots were in play so lots of suited connectors are played and not raised)
So, in the worst case two of my clubs are gone from one player, and another two because they pair the board, so my 9 outs become 5 and my odds to call become much worse.
Should I call here, or am I over thinking the hand?
|