[jhill3535]

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I don't like PreFlop but on the flop you are getting direct odds of 6.75 to win 19.25, 2.85-1.

It really appears that UTG has a large PP here, your A is likely to be an out against him, but the MP1 is completely unknown. He could have a set already but that is unlikely.

If you give yourself an average of 9 outs on this hand (sometimes your ace maybe good, sometimes the 3 of hearts is not an out, then you about 35% to win or a little less than a 2-1 dog to improve by the river.

If you shove and UTG folds you are in great shape. If you shove and UTG calls you are getting odds of 28.80 to win 40.55 or about 1.4-1 on the shove, which is no where near the odds you need to make a shove here profitable.

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How often would UTG need to fold to make this play profitable?

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I am not exactly sure on how to do the math, but I think this is close to right: Since you have about 35% estimated equity we can profitably call up to $14 to win a $40.55 pot, so we need 14-40.55 and we are getting 28.8-40.55, so I would say that we need him to fold a little more than half the time, say 55% of the time to make it profitable.