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Old 05-05-2007, 11:46 PM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Default Re: My friends analysis of why he bought CROX and why it went up 20%..

[ QUOTE ]
You can find the info on finance.yahoo.com:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=CROX&m=2009-01
You can see from the near-the-money options that the implied volatility is high. The time value of those options is about 20% of the value of the stock. For a typical S&P500 stock it would be about 10%.

I read a little more about this stock today, and found that the ugly trademark Beach and Cayman shoes only make up 50% of their sales, and they're developing new lines of shoes that are pretty different.

I like to take the attitude that there are thousands of opportunities out there, and wait for a really great one, rather than make close calls on marginal ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, i just checked that site and as you said, 14/70 is the time value and the intrinsic value is only about $2 on that $70 call on Jan-09. but, to be fair, that is about 1.5 years out. on the nearer term options it reads:

call K=70

May- time value= $0.95
June- time value= $2.85
Sept- time value= $6.41

still probably a bit high but without digging way deeper i can't say what the actual implied vol is on this stock relative to a variety of other stocks.

obviously it would be thin speculation at this point though so not taking any position here makes sense.

thanks,
Barron
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