[steakhouse]

We're getting a free showdown when villain has TP, JJ-TT or 9 higher kicker? Isn't there some value in that? I think that hero shouldn't be afraid of getting 3-betted since then we know that a pair of nines is no good (and we can fold the river unimproved) and we still have plenty of outs.

We're definately not spewing chips if we get 3-betted. We just lost 1BB if we don't draw out and we win 1 more if we draw out (and getting 3-betted on the turn is much less likely than getting a free showdown).

In other terms - let's assume a scenario one where hero is against QJ (we're getting a free showdown from this hand for sure). We have 31.82% pot equity on the turn. So 68.18% of the time we're losing just as much bets as a calldown would lose and 31.82% we're winning 1BB more.

Let's assume that we're against Q7 and we're getting 3-betted on the turn. We have 25% equity and we're losing 1 more bet 75% of the time and winning 2 more bets when we draw out (Let's assume that we get 1 bet more on the river when we hit. We actually get to raise the river from time to time).

So in this simplified scenario we can see that if x is the propability of QJ and y is the propability of Q7 and x + y = 1 (so those are the only hands that villain can have) we're getting x(0,3182)+y(0,50-0,75) = 0,3182x - 0,25y.

So if x = 0,5 = y, in other words 2-pair and tp are both villains holdings 50% of the time we're still winning ~ 0.07BB with this play. Naturally we face tp more often than 2-pair.

Raising the turn is definately not spewing chips, but I think that infact it's the correct play.