NL400: AA facing heat on flop
No reads.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (8 handed)
saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>
UTG+1 ($390.20)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($658)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($451)</font>
Button ($101.05)
SB ($518.45)
BB ($1054.60)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($390.45)</font>
Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $16, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $52</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $36, MP2 folds.
Flop: ($126) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG: checks
Hero: bets $94
UTG: raises $244.45 to $338.45 and is all-in
Hero: ???
What is your play and why?
Bear in mind that you are getting 558:224 or 2.3:1. You need 30% equity to call. If he has a set, you have ~8% equity. If you are ahead, assume you have 90% equity vs. range of AQ + KK. So you need to be ahead about 25% of the time to call (90% * 25% = 22.5% + 8% = 30.5%).
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